Why that poll showing 54% of California Hispanics want Gavin Newsom recalled may mean a big surprise for Dems

Why that poll showing 54% of California Hispanics want Gavin Newsom recalled may mean a big surprise for Dems By Monica Showalter for American Thinker

The mainstream media have been promoting the truism that California’s embattled Gov. Gavin Newsom will win his voter recall referendum.  It’s in the bag.

The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has been saying since at least 2008 that it has the Hispanic vote locked up.  Another “certainty.”

Here comes a poll, though, reported by the Daily Caller, showing that both are deluding themselves:

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More than half of Hispanics in California say they would vote to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to an Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll published Tuesday.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, showed Californians are split on the issue with 46% in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% are against it. Among Hispanics, 54% said they would vote to recall.

This is a startling counter-indicator, given that not only is it unfavorable to Newsom, but it’s also not consistent with the views of other demographic groups, such as blacks, who support Newsom; Asians, who support Newsom; and whites, who are almost evenly divided about him.

Here’s the big kicker: Hispanics form 39% of the population and 35% of the voter base, making them California’s biggest and most important constituency.

The bad news gets worse, according to reporting from the California Globe:

The Globe spoke with Mark Meuser and compared notes on the latest poll and the data.

“First, looking at the data, we see that the hispanic community is 54.4% planning on voting for the recall,” Meuser said. The state of California has approximately 35% registered Hispanic voters. But this poll only made up of 24.2% hispanic voters, Meuser noted. “It appears that this Emerson poll has under sampled hispanic voters.” This is also posted on his Senate campaign Facebook page.

Meuser continued: “Second, the Emerson poll sampled 46.4% democrats, 23.1% republicans, and 30.5% other parties, which may be close to actual party affiliation breakdowns.” However, Meuser said they do not track with typical turnout in California for special elections. “During special elections, Californian republicans tend to turn out in much higher numbers,” he said.

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, using data from 2019 to 2020, 31% of Hispanics identify as conservative, and 16% are registered Republicans.  Hispanics are less likely to vote than other demographic groups.  However, their poll data shows that other factors suggest they may be more energized to vote than commonly supposed.

Continue Reading / American Thinker >>>

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