A Given Action Results 1 in 50 Chance of Dying, Would You Still Do It? by byfor Modern Survival Blog
What About a One in Thirty Chance of Dying? Would you be concerned? Or would you simply take the risk and say to yourself, hopefully I won’t be the one…?
Hypothetical: You’re boarding a plane. You get to your seat and settle in. Everyone else is now buckled in. The flight attendant comes on the intercom and says,
“Attention ladies and gentlemen. We are obligated to advise you that there is a 1 in 30 chance that this jet is going to crash and everyone on board will die today. If any of you would like to get off, please do so now. Thank you.”
Would you get off that flight?
You bet your arss that I would…
A one in thirty chance is just a bit more than 3%. A one in fifty chance is 2%.
That’s the present kill rate of covid-19 coronavirus from numbers which are suspected to be artificially low (for a number of reasons). But 2%, maybe 3% are the official approximation of the numbers right now. Let’s go with that.
Perspective on the numbers
I’m trying to put some perspective on the numbers. Especially while so many are still fluffing it as no different than the flu (0.1%) with a R0 of just 1.
The present estimations are that a large percentage of the planet will eventually get covid-19 coronavirus. Lets put that into context, just for here in the United States of America.
If half the population eventually gets this virus (before any effective vaccine), and if the kill rate is about 3%, we’re looking at approximately 5 million dead. If only a third of the population gets it, we’re looking at more than 3 million dead. And that’s if you trust today’s official numbers.
And these numbers presume that the extremely sick (about 20% of those who get it) get a hospital bed and are treated. We don’t have even a small fraction of emergency beds for these kinds of numbers. So, will the death rate be higher as a result? Logically, yes.